rubberman

Name Home Team Away Team Guess Villa 2 0 Barnsley Villa Brighton 0 2 Chelsea Chelsea Arsenal 1 1 Palace Draw Burnley 0 2 Man Utd Man Utd Everton 1 0 West Brom Everton Leicester 2 1 Watford Leicester Stoke 1 1 Huddersfield Draw West Ham 1 1 Bournemouth Draw Man City 3 0 Newcastle Man City Southampton 0 2 Spurs Spurs Swansea 0 3 Liverpool Liverpool rubberman

Oof. That is not the sort of loan you want. Glad we've avoided that if true.

We haven't really been on a good run though. The last 3 are good, but prior to that we had 3 points from 5. Agreed we need an improvement, but with Derby to play at home, we only need to have one more win than them in 18 games. If we match Cardiff from here in on and beat them at home we go ahead of them so that's already in our hands. So yes - we have to perform (obviously), but only as well as Cardiff and marginally better than Derby which is completely achievable.

Well yes, but a) I'd prefer to be in Wolves position than ours and b ) it coming down to a winner-takes-all penultimate game v Derby or having to beat Millwall on the final day would be as stressful as having to go through the playoffs. Let's get there in Feb and pull away in March/April!

I think it was winning the Champions League in 10 years. Last year - (ahem) consolidation 2017/18 - Promotion 2018/19 - Consolidation in PL, say 10th-14th 2019/20 - Pushing on, 6th-8th (ideally no Europa League) 2020/21 - Top 4, CL qualification Then 5 years to settle in to our rightful place and win it. Simple.

Hey Steve. Could you spend double the time with Hogan and not bother with Gabby please? Thanks

I'd be happy with either. There's plenty of time to chip away at Derby's lead, but I'd also like to get a gap below as a buffer. If (big if) we do get into the top 2 sooner rather than later it will be interesting to see how we cope with that pressure. So far this season teams have crumbled quite quickly from there but I hope we have enough experience for that not to happen.

Derby and Bristol playing each other on friday - a draw would be a good result for us. Cardiff with a midweek Cup game (extra time please!) and then away to Wednesday also potential to drop points. May well be an opportunity to move up to third with another win.

I'm mostly on the Brence, but there's no doubting we're looking more effective now and beginning to put pressure on that 2nd spot. Great to see players come in and step up like Thor did - shows there's more confidence in the squad. Previously he'd have looked a bit nervy.

I know it's still a long way off, but that penultimate game against Derby is beginning to look like it could be the equivalent of the playoff final.

New manager bounce - nope. Sky hoodoo - nope. Can't play away - nope. Really good to be putting these all to bed now. We're turning into an effective side (for the championship). Keep it up.

If we go up, whether Bruce stays or goes will for me depend on how we get there (eg the rest of the season) as well as who is available to replace him. If we limp up through the playoffs having come sixth would be different to smashing everyone from here on in and getting automatic promotion. And if we're swapping Bruce for one of the usual merry-go-round suspects then meh, but if it's someone who is genuinely a level above then get the axe out.

They are massively inconsistent at home. Really should be able to win this. 0-2 Villa, ideally with Hogan continuing to build confidence.

I think, at this point of the season, you are overthinking this. There's still a long way to go before looking at specific permutations and everyone (possibly bar Wolves) will be shifting around a fair bit. 2-3 wins or 2-3 losses and it all changes for any of the teams in the mix.

Name Home Team Away Team Guess Nottm Forest 1 1 Villa Draw Chelsea 2 1 Leicester Chelsea Palace 1 1 Burnley Draw Huddersfield 1 1 West Ham Draw Newcastle 1 0 Swansea Newcastle Watford 1 1 Southampton Draw West Brom 1 1 Brighton Draw Spurs 2 0 Everton Spurs Bournemouth 0 2 Arsenal Arsenal Liverpool 2 3 Man City Man City Man Utd 2 0 Stoke Man Utd rubberman

That's some injury time.

Rubbish indeed. When they did it mid November and we were 6th, it had us finishing 15th.

Bruce has said 5 under 20's so not that line up ^^. I imagine O'Hare and/or Doyle-Hayes the most likely and Bree at the back.

That run gets me quite excited. Bring it on.

The bold is true, but xG isn't a forecast / prediction, it's an analysis of what happened in games compared to 1000s of other games. All our graph shows is that for the season to date we should have gained more points given the chances we've created vs each team. ie we should have converted more of those chances. Conversely, Derby have gained more point than would be expected from the chances they've created in those matches. The only forecast you can make from that is that we are underperforming and may get better as the graphs get closer over a longer sample period and that Derby may get worse - but equally, both sides may continue to perform in the same way. xG is derived from averages and to get those there will always be teams above and below average IYSWIM.

Really can't be arsed with the cup this year. We're not going to get near winning so it is just a distraction. Ideally will avoid an embarrassment though and then get someone like Spurs next round who we can lose to for an acceptable result. Mostly kids plus a half or so for Terry & Green coming back to match fitness. Would give Hogan a chance to build more confidence, but not risk Grealish, Chester, Hourihane, Adomah etc.

That washbag though...

Indeed. 4 out of 38 league goals have come from forwards - 2 for Davis, 1 for Hogan and 1 for Gabby. The midfield have been doing well for us, but if we added a goal scoring forward - Hogan in form or a new loan seem most likely, or possibly RHM - that would transform us. Davis seems a bit 'Heskey' so I'm not sure we'll ever see a prolific season from him, despite what he adds to the team in more general play. Doesn't sound like we'll see Kodjia back for much of this season.

No - I think it's based on chances created and where those chances are on the pitch. Something like this: If someone shoots from the corner of the box the chance of them scoring is, say, 10% so if we have a shot from there the xG is 0.1. When someone gets a tap in from 2m out they score 95% of the time, so the xG is 0.95. Add all those up in a game and you get the xG for each team in a match regardless of what happened IRL. The stats are from 1000s of games - Opta or the like. From our graph - we are a bit crap at finishing, but are creating enough good chances that on average we should be putting away more of. Or at least more than the teams we've played.

Is this the new Janusaj loan meme?