OK. Let's do the maths taking just the goal scoring rates in the UE 7 games and go again.
So based on the original scoring rates, we previously estimated that those 5 forward players will score 17 goals in the remaining 18 games, basically duplicating form to date (OW 7, Bailey 4, Buendia 3, Cout 1, JJ 2), but that we need between 12 and 19 goals on top of that to realistically equal the GD of teams in, say 8th to 6th). So BEST case we need 29 total between now and July.
Using just the rates in the UE games:
Ollie is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals for the remainder of the season.
Buendia is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals
Bailey is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals
Couts is 0 in 7- let's be generous again and give him 1 goal.
JJ is 1 in 7- equating to 3 (2.5) goals. Let's give JJ a couple to make up for the injury, again being generous.
That gives us a total of 21. That’s 8 short. Assuming everyone else chips in as they have been doing. And we have no injuries.
That is a contribution of just under a 1:2 striker over the last 18 games.