bickster

Schrödinger’s crime

Yeah it’s full of things

The Police stopped taking responsibility for lost prop about ten years ago. Cutbacks innit.

Also, this will be interesting tomorrow I’m expecting some of the recommendations to be nonsense if I'm perfectly honest because it was based on that Survation MRP poll published yesterday

The left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing… The national party send out letters saying a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer The local candidate, who knows where the threat is in the constituency tells people a vote for the LibDems is a vote for Starmer. But the local candidate lays it on so thick he’s as good as telling everyone who wants the Tories gone to vote LibDem in that seat by telling them that Labour is going to win the election he’s also sending a really shit message to his own voters that kind of breeds more stay at home Tories Why would the national party send out a letter to a 52% remain, very middle class seat warning of the dangers of voting Reform… it’s like they don’t actually know anything. The seat screams LibDem target even to the mildly interested. Say bye bye to the 17k majority in Cotswolds South. LibDems are going to win this

I love me a bit of blue on slightly different blue action

I’ve just had to show the missus how to play a record for when I’m not in if she wants to play this, a move I may well come to regret

Dealer… The Beautiful South - Choke Utter Cack What comes next may raise a smile…

There a people old enough to vote that weren’t even alive. In other words an entire generation of people who have no personal reference to the subject matter you are referencing. Not only that but this is a topic is about the current general election, the Iraq War isn’t relevant. If you want to talk about Labour and the Iraq War can I suggest starting a new topic, it’s not particularly relevant to this topic that’s for sure

I was putting this in the dealer pile but the missus says she wants to keep it. Not my thing but hey ho and it’s live, even more not my thing. Simon and Garfunkel - The Concert in Central Park

Nothing stopping them doing both, but I imagine Labour, if they’ve been reading the polling correctly (which is highly unlikely on current form). Reform to Tory votes are going to be incredibly hard to shift, they literally don’t care about anything other than Farage being the new messiah.

Taking it too literally Mike. False claim, amplified by the RWM leading to election changing voting patterns. Then Russia bit isn’t the bit to take away from this

Another thing that may start getting mentioned and to look out for (not that you'll be able to miss it). A Zinoviev moment A thread to explain its origins.

Well, when we see what is left of them in a few weeks, they'll clearly be getting a new leader… but here’s a little factoid for us... When a leader loses an election from the position of PM and a new leader takes over, that leader is very rarely ever successful. There is one exception to that and it's Thatcher but Heath didn’t resign straight away, she wasn’t elected until a year after the defeat (and that is quite important - he took a lot of the flak for a year). Ken Clarke is on record as saying the worst thing William Hague did was beat him in the leader contest after 1997 because he'd have been a better leader and in a better position if he’d waited until the next contest. Sorry off in a tangent there but an important one… Johnson has in the last few days started campaigning and posting messages of support for certain Tory candidates, he’s giving them his personal seal of approval. I've also read an article from one paper (may have been the Telegraph unshockingly) that sent a reporter to Hartlepool, essentially a bit of a Vox Pop in a seat the Tories are widely expected to lose. Why Hartlepool? Because the by-election in this parliament was under Johnson's watch AND it was the biggest post war swing to a party of government in a by-election, long standing governments winning by-elections is rare, long standing governments winning by-elections from the opposition with a massive swing to the government, rarer still but Hartlepool was a beast. So anyway, they managed to find someone (in a pub) that voted Tory then and before, wouldn’t vote Reform for all the right reasons and is going to vote Labour… (fairly normal atm) but there’s a caveat, she'd vote Tory again if Johnson was in charge because… he's one of ours. It’s not really important, it’s a Vox pop after all but what is important is that they reported it and the way they reported it. Also with the impending obvious Farage issue, it was also pointed out that Johnson completely neutralised Farage in 2019 by getting him to stand down etc… Johnson clearly won't be the next leader (it’s impossible and he’d be a fool to be) but just you watch him stand again in a safe by-election, then be in position to take control of the party as the anti-Farage / unite the party candidate.

Ultravox - Vienna Never Really got on with the single, so never really paid any attention to the album back in 1980. It’s actually not bad, going in the keep pile. Also like that it was mixed at Conny Plank's studio so has a nod to its influences.

Encouraging if true. Also points to a potentially higher turnout than some people are expecting Also Reforms showing in the polls would indicate a high ish turnout as a good chunk of them would have been stay at home politicians are all the same idiots

The amount of people sharing UK Polling Report individual constituency "reports" and encouraging people to vote tactically on the basis of those reports is doing my absolute nut in UK Polling Report is absolute bollocks, its getting many seats very wrong. It seems to be taking 2019 results and applying a current polling average to them. Its beyind shite its dangerously bad and people are giving the wrong advice As an example - Islington North. COrbyn despite being the incumbent MP and accepted wisdom is that its a two horse race between Labour and him. UK Polling report has him down as less than 1% of the vote. There are seats in the SOuth West (I think I spotted a Portsmouth one) where people were being encouraged to vote Labour to get rid of the Tory when its quite clearly a vote LibDem to get rid of the Tory seat It's that bad, you'd have to suspect its been set up as a spoiler

She's not very popular, even less so that Farage, she'd probably be second preference of the Farage ones

Obviously entitled to your opinion but it isn't correct. There's no way a party pushing those three policies can be considered to be on the right of any scale. If the Overton window has shifted rightwards as you suggest, then those policies would be even MORE left of centre

Charging VAT on private school fees Removing Non-Dom Tax loopholes Nationalising the railways And all that other right wing stuff they seem to have put in their manifesto. They really aren’t centre right

And here’s more of the reasons… from the other side

Spooky

My point isn’t about Farage it’s about the Tories, there is no simple merge / allow Farage in, a big big big chunk of them hate him.