bickster

@Wainy316 The bit about Labour not targeting the seat is VERY important. That is outright telling you they themselves don't think they can win it and they think they can win a huge amount of seats this time Similar happened in 1997 when Tactical Voting was last at its peak. Labour will never say don't vote for us, it would be electoral suicide but there are plenty of clues as to what to do if you do want to vote the Tories out If Labour aren't targeting a seat, it really does mean that privately they think they have very little chance of winning and putting resources into that seat are a waste of money

Yep, that isn't a poll in the constituency. That's an MRP nationwide poll projected to represent that constituency. The projections are getting a lot wrong at the local level partly because there's no history in most of seats because of the boundary changes and as I mentioned earlier, Scotland has demographics that are way out of date. Get Voting and Stop the Tories will acknowledge this and that is why some of their recommendations don't make sense when you look at the MRP projections for each seat but in making their recommendations they take other factors into account. If you look just below that screenshot it says " Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat." Then further up it says why it has gone with the LibDems...

Its something I've been pondering since their surge happened There have only been three people Reform have been putting forward for anything. The one person with parliamentary experience has been absolutely missing in all of this. Anderson, I get he's really got a battle on his hands to retain his seat but he's been absolutely nowhere. It's mostly Farage with a smattering of Tice and Habib Reform really is a personality cult (sic) Even if they do as well as some of the polls are predicting (they won't), they are still likely to be the 5th party (outside chance of being 4th - if the SNP really do collapse) Cut the head off the snake and they are done. (also see my previous posts on why the Reform / Tory merger is highly unlikely)

I think this just about sums up my feelings, I really do want them to be third. If my vote mattered to get rid of a Tory, I'd be voting tactically. (much more of the reasoning in a very long tweet)

There are boundary changes, it’s a new seat, the bits that were added were small villages (definitely prime LibDem / Tory) Can you find the polls? Were they constituency specific polls? A lot of the MRP polls are pushing out really odd constituency level predictions. I’m not really convinced the MRP methods have the right modelling this time around, especially when extrapolated to specific constituencies. There are previously 60% SNP constituencies in Scotland that MRPs have down as Labour gains and quite frankly, there’s no freakin’ way Oh and as a complete aside, Scotland's modelling is buggered across the board as all the polling companies are having to use the 2011 census data as 2021 wasn’t available to them Another note about MRP polls, they are consistently seeming to overstate the Tory share of vote compared to the normal polling. Most of the MRPs seem to have a lot wrong this time as does Electoral Calculus (which was the most accurate in 2019)

That’s been going on for a couple of weeks now I think.

Yep, that’s too close to call, it’s one of those you have to go with your personal choices I think just because there is no clear cut obvious tactical vote

Pretty much anyone with an avid interest in politics This is the second lockdown which is widely documented but it’s been mentioned by a few people he was arguing in cabinet against the first Guardian Then there was the eat out to help the virus out scheme… Sunak was absolutely awful during the pandemic. Yes Johnson was awful but Sunak would have been worse by a long way.

1. Every single western democracy did this. 2. Sunak was known to be against it in cabinet. He got forced into it by Johnson. Praising Sunak for furlough is ridiculous, he’s very fiscally libertarian. He’d quite happily have let people die and cut taxes for his mates

Not sure why you think that’s a three way fight. Labour not going to win in a month of Sundays. LibDem is the tactical vote for sure. I’d also be prepared to put money on the LibDems winning, but I doubt the odds would be good, clear favourites I think That whole Oxford / Thames corridor is is possibly going to be a sea of orange on the map. It’s all very much middle class / remainer territory and the LibDem message is really resonating with all the demographic there.

More from the electoral dump in the letterbox This is the Liberal Party not the LibDems I don’t live in this constituency (even before the boundary changes it wasn’t in this constituency either) That actual policy bit there that says Garston needs better transport is hilarious, I actually think it’s better connected transport wise than any other suburb of Liverpool and in reality about a good three quarters of London. It has the largest station on 4 different lines outside the city centre. All the city centre to South of the city routes converge here and for most of those routes there are two operators. You can get to most places from here very easily

I’ve had an electoral dump in my letter box This is the Green Party offering. Affordable Homes for all, in the right place! Its like Jeremy wrote it

Saw this myself just now, it’s very close to the truth too

Which constituency?

You mean like a party that will nationalise the railways, tax the rich and stuff like that?

Anyone fancy a threesome?

Not at all, I just prefer people to be informed and say things that are correct. I criticise Labour an awful lot, if you search my posts, you'll find that out and why I'm not voting for them You shouldn't have to go back far to find me criticising Starmer. More reading, less assuming. Oh and checks some facts before you decide on an opinion.

The Tories are shit but you still keep pushing the ludicrous demonstrably untrue things they've said and done in the last 15 years. It beggars belief, really.

Well yes and that is understating it We will never see another election campaign quite like this one. Its been said often recently that political satire is dead. Political satire's body has been dug up after 10 years and paraded around the streets on the back of a donkey now

@Seat68 I am so jealous of your youth, seems like halcyon days

A slew of polls today are slightly more encouraging. Labour Steady LibDems rising Reform falling back Tories just about hitting their floor If that trend can continue up to the election it'll be great.

AN approval rating of +2 for a main party leader in this day and age is almost miraculous

Do they even understand this tweet themselves? It's gone from juvenile to... quite frankly psychedelic French flag?

This one just likes throwing his money away £8k on the Tories to win at 9/1