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bickster

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Everything posted by bickster

  1. The Russian military appears to very dysfunctional looking through Western eyes. The command structure is very different. NATO forces allow flexibility down the line for NCOs and Junior officers to make tactical decisions based on current conditions. Russia on the other hand seems to have a very rigid structure. NCOs and junior officers have to stick to the plan as laid out, which is why so many high ranking officers are meeting their end, they have to be in field to issue their orders. But even then the Generals stick to the plan as laid out to them from the manual. There appears to be little learning from mistakes and debriefing. It really is a case of rinse and repeat, they literally just chuck fresh meat into the grinder and start again It's not a case of admitting anything, they did as they were told and it failed, so do they do it again until it works, except it very often doesn't. Russian military doctrine is rigid just like it was in the Soviet era. It worked in WWII so it'll work again
  2. There's not one single entry in his register of Interests that shows as being registered late. It normally does, I looked up Jess Phillips register last week and that has quite a few marked as registered late
  3. Most of that is very good but Electoral Reform needs to be at the very top of the list or the cycle of do and undo every decade or so will just continue
  4. Phil Bennett, legendary Wales Fly-half of the classic ‘70s team has passed (after a typical sidestep in May) saw him play a few times for Wales and Llanelli. Among if not the finest in his position of his era Set up what many still regard as the greatest ever try in International Rugby for Gareth Edwards for the Barbarians in Murrayfield
  5. She's dead, can't you just be nice about her
  6. Right, that's it, slapheads from OnTopic are invading, I shall have to take hirsuitable action....
  7. You're making a mistake of treating Russia as one large homogenous entity here. It isn't. Not only that but you are confusing supression of the people with brainwashing. Sure some people are brainwashed but an awful lot aren't, a lot are just scared to act. People are scared to say or do anything because they know the consequences but the Putin and the Kremlin also know that in the large cities especially there is a line that it is very difficult to cross and that is the whole reason why he has never once called this a war. War means mass mobilisation and conscription and no matter how brainwashed the Russian people are, they know it's a war that they started. Even Putin can't deny that. Now the large cities are important here because they are mainly in European Russia and are much closer to the NATO boundaries. He declares war and watch those large cities react. For those of conscription age, it then becomes a question of protest, get injured and put in jail for a long time or get blown to bits in a war they really don't want. For those over conscription age, it becomes a question (for them, especially due to the rhetoric at home) of getting potentially blown to bits in their own homes. And that is the balancing act Putin has been playing and the longer the war goes on, the less likely he is to declare a war and mobilise because the consequences are worse the longer it goes on. The longer it goes on, the less troops he has to quell anything on the home front, he's already dangerously close to being unable to defend anything on land, his army and his reserves of vehicles are seriously depleted. The army couldn't even muster enough troops to fight the seasonal wildfires in places like Siberia that they usually do. It's also true that a lot of the conscripted troops are from the countryside and the east because Russia is racist from the top of society to the bottom. Those from the East have never been seen as equals by those in the West, thats why the government conscripts them and in situations like this, uses them as canon fodder. The other thing to note here about Russian conscription, is that conscripts can't be sent into battle by law unless its wartime. Only contracted soldiers i.e. those that signed up of their own free will during or after their conscription can be sent into a conflict. So when you see Russian Army figures, those are for conscripted and contracted soldiers. So what is covering the home front right now are mainly conscripts, conscripts aren't going to start killing their own people to quell protests If you want evidence of the young people of conscription age not wanting to join up right now (because of the looming possibility or war meaning they can get sent to the front) just look at the amount of fires taking place at conscription offices across Russia, it isn't partizans or Ukrainian Special Forces doing this, it's Russians shitting themselves that they might be called up The large cities are key to any overthrow of the government and Putin declaring this a war is highly likely to trigger massive protests and who knows where that could lead, Putin sure as hell doesn't and because he doesn't he can't.
  8. Well only because it signals the end of this shite band
  9. There's quite a few misconceptions here I think War is generally good for a sitting government, not bad but the Tories only got minor upwards movement from it which they've since lost and lost more than they gained Partygate has clearly had a huge influence on current trends and this will continue for some time yet Also, the current trends shouldn't be looked at as just Labour vs Tory, the LibDems also need to be factored in and that is important because as much as the failure of Corbyn is a factor in the large Tory majority, so is the failure of the LibDems which goes back to trust issues from the coalition government (righly so IMO) but that seems to being erased from the voters minds now. Why are the LibDems important? Because they are the natural opposition in a lot of seats especially in rural areas and in some geographic regions like the Souh West of England. There are two by elections coming up where I expect this will be demonstrated. FIrstly, Wakefield a traditional Red Wall Labour seat that Labour won from 1932 until 2019. Labour will win this by margins they haven't had since the '70s because the Liberals will only be pretending to stand Secondly, Tiverton and Honiton. You don't get much more Tory than this seat normally, Labour have been a distant second every time since 2010 but before 2010, the LibDems were second and much better placed. As much as Labour have been second, they don't have a prayer of taking this seat. When the constiuency was formed (1997) the Tory Majority was only 2kish over the LibDems, so there has been a very strong LibDem presence here in the past. So even though Labour are the second placed party, they really aren't going to try here. If the LibDems can get the vote back (and early focus group results suggest they have), they will run the Tories close and given that its a mid-term by-election, which are always more volatile and favour opposition parties, it's perfectly within the realms of possibility that they will elect a LibDem for the first time. The LibDems are also usually quite good at retaining by-election seats at the next election The LibDem resurgence is needed and it is also affecting the margins between Labour and the Tories becuase where some would have voted Labour in certain seats because its the best Not Tory vote, those votes will go to the LibDems where the LibDems can demonstrate an ability to win, it is also much easier for the LibDems to pick up dissaffected Tory voters as they still have a Not Labour mentality. And that's why my prediction for some time has been a Labour / LibDem coaltion as the next Government and my hope is that electoral reform is the number one demand of the LibDems in forming a coalition. And if that last bit happens, watch politics get really interesting for statos. (Like why does the Isle of WIght only elect one MP with a 119,00 electorate when Stoke Central elects an MP with a 55,000 electorate - both Tory seats as it happens) So anyway, thats why the LibDem resurgence is important
  10. It's not even the best Sapporo tin ever, unless of course they've reintroduced the one where the whole top comes off and turns the can into a very sturdy drinking vessel. That was the best
  11. The Polls actually say, clearly a good few points ahead and have been ahead for 6 months Politico Poll of Polls
  12. Just from reading the baseline figures for the Party share of the vote, that poll is somewhat of an outlier compared to current trends
  13. The US opinion was specific to it's own citizens going there to fight after the outbreak of hostilities I thought. (and it didn't stop them, there are a number of high profile US volunteers, like James Vasquez.) And it was said at the time Putin was threatening to nuke everyone at the start of the conflict. That highlighted quote also doesn't apply in anycase because the two Britains were engaged in armed combat WITHIN and not in violation of the laws of war. They were part of the regular Ukraine Army
  14. 1) The two British citizens have dual nationality, so they aren't foreign by any definition. Both are married to Ukrainian women and Ukraine is their home 2) Both are part of the regular Ukraine Army and have been for a good while (about 2 years I think) 3) and as Blandy says, the Geneva Convention
  15. Another Oxfam purchase - 30p Bought for the cultural reference
  16. Did you buy the happy couple a gift?
  17. Pretentious glasses that indicated one has paid to much for one’s drink
  18. It doesn't matter, he isn't part of the ruling family, he has no bearing on the direction of the country. Not only that but as a minority shareholder with no place on the board of the Independent (that was part of the deal that allowed him to buy the stake), he also has no bearing on the direction of the paper either. He's a shareholder (30%) and that's all
  19. Maybe you should do your own research. the Indie is not owned by "The Saudis." A Saudi investor owns 30%, he is not a member of the ruling House of Saud nor is he a majority shreholder in the Independent.
  20. Most people who voted Conservative have no concept of right or left in politics
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