You have to understand what Starmer's job was. Starmer is the new Kinnock, he is there to decorbynise the Labour Party as Kinnock's job was to rid it of Militant.
The problem is, the Tories have imploded quite spectacularly and now he needs to be John Smith / Blair and Kinnock at the same time
1. Their figures are a bit behind the current running average of the polls
2. If you do the User defined Prediction, you can get it to list every constituency and with the current running averages I get LAB 318 Con 238 LD 17 SNP 51 Plaid 5 NI 18 and one Indie (Devon East)
That givers Labour just 7 short of a majority BUT...
That really doesn't factor in Tactical Voting which a lot of commentators expect to happen this time around, If that does happen I expect the LibDems to gain more Tory seats than the prediction currently shows.
He's a classic one termer. Only got in last time because The Ashfield Independents picked up a huge chunk of the Labour vote. The Tory vote in Ashfield actually shrunk slightly. Take the "Corbyn Effect" out of the vote and you have to imagine Labour stand a good chance of regaining that seat anyway regardless of the current polling.
The only way he stands a chance of re-election is if the Tories vote share increases.
It's also interesting as to why a few of the Swivel Eyed Loons are no longer supporting Johnson. Steve Baker ERG Nutter and MP for Wycombe
2010: 9560 majority
2015: 14856 majority
2017: 6578 majority
2019: 4214 majority
He's been losing vote share because of the failure of the LibDems (they were second in 2010), Labour have been picking those votes up. It's an interesting seat because his best chance of retaining his seat is actually a LibDem resurrection. Wycombe will be an interesting seat to watch next election as will Ashfield
They aren't "only nominally" ahead. Currently averaging 40% - 33% ahead and have been for most of the year.
Taking a rough figure of 32 million voters at an election (roughly how many voted in 2019) that gives the following vote totals if translated into an election (This isn't a prediction btw)
Labour 12.8 million
Tory 10.6 million
LibDem 3.8 Million
Or put it another way Labour has 20% more voters than the Tories do.
It's a significant amount but the anomalies of FPTP favour the Tories
I bought this yesterday. It's only available on CD
Lee Scratch Perry presents The Full Experience
The Full Experience were a female vocal trio popular in the Roots era of Jamaican Reggae. Recorded by LSP at his Black Ark Studio a lot of this took years to actually surface a lot of this is very much in the Lovers Rock vein
This CD has Candy McKenzie or Aurelia Lewis on Lead Vocals, presumably the other member of the trio Pamela Reed also had tracks but they may have gone up in flames in the Black Ark I guess
That plan was already supposedly underway (See post from earlier on today)
Call for election of new 1922 committee, vote in new committee, change the rules of the 1922, hold VONC straight away as the letters are already in
if he does it's an absolute Hail Mary. He'd have to win that election otherwise the Tory Party would be damaged beyond repair. In fact just calling it might just do that