Whats the average time from thinking about an attack to an attack actually being carried out? Hypothetically, its important to know when you make this argument. If the standard time frame is usually 2 years then it makes your argument weak. If its 10 days, it makes your argument strong. (ill be surprised if its less than 5 months tbh, pure guess though). Ofc that question is impossible to answer but a very important figure.
There could even be orders of top guys saying wait X amount of time before carrying out anything.
Thats why imo, your argument is sucky and doesnt hold much weight. Still think the timeframe is far too short
Edit: You should judge it on attacks succesful + attacks failed (which may or may not be more 0). Not just attacks succesfull