Monte Carlo simulation (Round 6)
Entry posted by leviramsey
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For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up.
I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
| 5th | 0.1% | |
|---|---|---|
| 6th | 0.1% | |
| 7th | 0.2% | |
| 8th | 0.3% | |
| 9th | 0.6% | |
| 10th | 0.8% | |
| 11th | 1.3% | |
| 12th | 2.2% | |
| 13th | 3.4% | |
| 14th | 5.2% | |
| 15th | 7.4% | |
| ^^^ upper quartile | ||
| 16th | 10.3% | |
| 17th | 13.0% | |
| 18th | 16.3% | median |
| 19th | 18.1% | |
| vvv lower quartile | ||
| 20th | 20.7% | |
By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th.
The table that came up most often in the simulation was:
| 1. | Man City |
|---|---|
| 2. | Chelsea |
| 3. | Leicester City |
| 4. | Spurs |
| 5. | Everton |
| 6. | Man United |
| 7. | Swansea |
| 8. | Arsenal |
| 9. | West Brom |
| 10. | West Ham |
| 11. | Southampton |
| 12. | Watford |
| 13. | Crystal Palace |
| 14. | Stoke |
| 15. | Norwich |
| 16. | Bournemouth |
| 17. | Liverpool |
| 18. | Villa |
| 19. | Newcastle |
| 20. | Sunderland |
Relegation chances
| Sunderland | 61.8% |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | 55.5% |
| Villa | 55.1% |
| Liverpool | 48.5% |
| Bournemouth | 33.6% |
| Norwich | 22.9% |
| Stoke | 11.1% |
| Watford | 3.0% |
| Southampton, Crystal Palace | 2.4% |
| West Ham | 1.3% |
| Swansea | 1.0% |
| West Brom | 0.6% |
| Arsenal | 0.4% |
| Man Utd | 0.3% |
| Everton | 0.1% |
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